Important Elections Outside of Pennsylvania
April 4, 2008
This year’s presidential election has been one of the most competitive in recent memory. For the first time in twenty-eight years there is no sitting president or vice-president running for the nation’s highest office. The race has dominated the news, as John McCain went from the party’s frontrunner to falling behind the former governors of Alabama and Massachusetts, and finally the party’s de facto nominee. On the other side, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama seem to be embroiled in one of the closest primary contests in years that may not end anytime soon. But with all this attention given to the presidential hopefuls, many of the interesting House and Senate races this election cycle have gone underreported.
Both houses of Congress changed parties in 2006, and in this election the Republicans are trying to regain the seats they lost while the Democrats are hoping to keep their majority, and possibly extending it. So far, the news hasn’t been great for the Republicans, as twenty-six GOP Congressmen are retiring (or running for higher office) compared to only seven Democrats. The GOP is seeing less cohesion this election, especially compared to recent political history. Certain races are highlighting splits in the Republican Party, mainly over the Iraq War but also over ideological differences. Incumbent anti-war Republicans are facing primary challenges by pro-war politicians, while libertarian Republicans are facing challenges in the primaries and the general election.
One example of a pro-war challenge is in Maryland’s 1st District, where incumbent Wayne Gilchrest, a liberal to moderate Republican, was defeated by over ten points in the primaries by State Senator Andrew Harris, a pro-war Republican. Harris received endorsements from many prominent Maryland Republicans, including former governor Bob Ehrlich. Gilchrest was bitter over the lack of support he received from the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), as he had raised a substantial amount of money for the committee. After the defeat, Gilchrest’s campaign manager hinted that Gilchrest might choose to endorse the Democratic candidate, Frank Kratovil, as opposed to Harris. Many libertarian Republicans have also been challenged in the primaries. Congressman Ron Paul ® of Texas, a 2008 presidential candidate who surprised many experts with his ability to fundraise and mobilize support using the internet, faced a challenger in the primary for his seat.
Two interesting races have already had elections in mid-March. Illinois’ 14th district held a special election after former Speaker Dennis Hastert’s ® resignation, and Indiana’s 7th district also held one after the passing of Congresswoman Julia Carson (D). Hastert’s former district was a Republican stronghold for years, and had only seen one Democrat in office since 1934, and that was only after the Watergate scandal. Surprisingly, a district that had gone 61% for President Bush in the 2004 presidential election elected a Democrat, Bill Foster, to finish out Hastert’s term. The Democratic Party declared the win as indicative of growing dissatisfaction with the Republican Party, while the GOP blamed the loss on the Republican candidate Jim Oberwei’s alienation of voters. Both candidates heavily relied on their private wealth to finance the campaigns, as Foster spent $1.8 million of his own fortune, while Oberweis spent $2.3 million and received another $1.2 million from the NRCC. For an election that’s going to be held again in about eight months, a lot of money was pumped into the district. The NRCC spent 20% of its cash-on-hand for all national races this year on this race alone. With the upcoming November rematch not far off, the NRCC is pressuring Oberweis to drop out and let a stronger candidate challenge Foster, but he appears to be staying in.
In the Illinois 7th district, the Democratic Party nominated recently deceased Congresswoman Julia Carson’s grandson, André Carson, to run for her seat. The thirty-three year old was elected to the Indianapolis Council in October and won the special election in March, making him the second Muslim to serve in the House of Representatives. Both Carson and his special election opponent, State Representative Jon Elrod ®, will run again in November along with a slew of other candidates from both parties.
Virginia has drawn some considerable national attention over the last few election cycles as the formerly strong red state has seen its politics shift recently. George Allen ®, mentioned as a strong 2008 presidential candidate two years ago, was surprisingly upset in 2006 by the anti-Iraq War Jim Webb (D), largely due to the increasingly urban and suburban population that is moving towards the left. This cycle the other Senate seat is up for grabs, as incumbent John Warner ® is retiring. The race features several candidates, but the two strongest candidates are both former governors who explored running for president in 2008: Mark Warner (D) and Jim Gilmore ®. Mark Warner unsuccessfully challenged John Warner in 1996 (creating a confusing Warner vs. Warner race) but won the gubernatorial race in 2001. Warner was an immensely popular governor, and his Lieutenant Governor Tim Kaine won the next election in 2005 (in Viriginia sitting governors may not run for reelection). He appears to be the presumptive nominee for the Democrats and does not have any serious primary opponents.
Gilmore preceded Mark Warner as governor, after serving as Virginia’s Attorney General when George Allen was governor from 1994-1998. After his one term, he held a number of positions, including serving as the chairman of the Republican National Committee in 2001. He had a short-lived 2008 presidential campaign, as the first Republican to drop out of the race due to poor fundraising. After dropping his White House bid he declared himself as a candidate for John Warner’s soon-to-be vacant seat. Gilmore faced a difficult primary battle against Representative Tom Davis, but Davis dropped out, citing the difficulty in beating Gilmore in the conservative Virginia GOP convention, and the difficulty in beating a well-financed Mark Warner in populous Northern Virginia, the center of the recent urban and suburban growth.
The 2008 elections could shake up the congressional balance of power significantly. While polling shows that Republicans don’t stand much of a chance of taking back the House, they could make some gains. Despite many of the interesting story lines regarding the House and Senate elections, certain factors outside the candidates’ power could affect the outcome. The presidential race will definitely affect the congressional contests, but it remains to be seen how and to what extent. State politics will also affect many of the races, as many controversial governors have drawn national attention. Former New York governor Eliot Spitzer’s sex scandal and subsequent resignation could harm New York Democrats’ chances in the House elections.