The Kings of the Court: An NBA Preview
October 27, 2006
The NBA title currently resides in South Beach, where the defending champion Miami Heat is short of neither talent nor confidence.
With their cast of well known personalities, such as Shaq, coach Pat Riley, Dwayne Wade, Gary Payton, Alonzo Mourning, and so on the Heat will come to the court for the 2006-2007 season with the same swagger that allowed them to capture the franchise’s first NBA title last June when they came back to beat the Mavericks in six games after going down 2-0.
With Big Ben leaving the Pistons for an inflated contract with the Chicago Bulls this off-season, it appears that Miami will be an even more obvious favorite to come out of the East again this year and represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals.
In a league that has become increasingly watered down over the past 20 years with more teams and high school and international draftees who have not panned out, it is not always easy to sift through which rosters will produce a championship contender. Also, the disturbing trend of “clear out and let your best player dribble the shot clock down to three and launch a shot” is blogging the game down.
In recent history, the Western Conference has been the more talented conference, top to bottom.
Despite boasting a better composition of teams within the western conference, the Eastern Conference has taken two of the last three NBA finals, indicating that the top-flight teams in the East are not listening to all the inferiority talk and Western Conference bias .
That being said, it will take more than just pure talent to win a championship. A team will need to avoid major injuries, make the right moves at the trading deadline and receive some good fortune from the Basketball gods along the way. And now the best three teams in each conference:
Western Conference
1. The Dallas Mavericks
The NBA finals runners-up and defending Western Conference champions boast an international basketball superstar, Dirk Nowitzki and an infamous billionaire owner, Mark Cuban. The Mavericks were two games away from a title a year ago, with arguably one of the deepest teams in the league and they should be right there at the end.
Third-year coach Avery Johnson will lead a team that will need high-level production from the young, dynamic duo of Josh Howard and Devin Harris in order to compliment the veteran leadership and talent of point guard Jason Terry and do-it-all Nowitzki.
Ultimately, however, it will come down to the prime-time play of Dirk, whose mysterious “lapses” during the finals may have cost the team a title.
Easing his load will be the key for Coach Johnson this season. Another finals collapse may produce another Mark Cuban meltdown and NBA-record fine handed out by the omnipresent commissioner David Stern. Cuban would rather save his pennies to pay his players, who comprise the league’s third largest payroll at nearly $93 million.
2. The San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs have been the most consistently dominant team in the NBA since 1999.
Last year’s playoff run was ended early, while the whole season itself took its toll. With injuries to Manu Ginobili, Tim Duncan, and Tony Parker supposedly healed, the Spurs big three should be ready to go at full speed for the first time since they won the 2005 NBA Finals.
While proven defensive stopper Bruce Bowen and proven scorer Michael Finely will provide their veteran contributions, look for the x-factor to be the play of big men Francisco Elson and Fabricio Oberto inside in support of Duncan. A healthy and rested Duncan is an obvious key factor for a Spurs’ playoff run come spring time.
Look for the Spurs to continue to grind it out with defense and go on timely scoring runs to rack up wins. As with all of the top teams in each conference, the race for home-court advantage will prove to be very important. The Spurs have been particularly tough to beat at home in recent years. Coach Popovich will have to decide between making a push for the best record and finding time to rest up his big three for the start of the playoffs at the end of the season.
3. The Phoenix Suns
The biggest thing on the mind of two-time repeat MVP Steve Nash and the rest of the run and gun Suns is simple—Amare Stoudemire.
Amare, before his injury, was one of the league’s top players at any position. While still only 23 years old, his recovery from micro fracture knee surgery is still great cause from concern. No player has regained their previous level of ability following this surgery and Amare’s lost 2005-2006 season (except for a handful of games in March) could be an early, ominous indicator of things to come for his career.
Despite Stoudemire’s absence both last season and in the playoffs, the Suns were able to continue to defy logic behind the stellar play of Nash, Shawn Marion, super-Sun Leandro Barbosa, and Tim Thomas. A deep playoff run without Amare could turn into an NBA championship with him at full strength.
The health of the Suns, however, with Amare’s knee, Nash’s back, and the thin bench and high minutes for Coach Mike D’Antoni’s short rotation could prove too much for the fast paced style that has worked so well down in Phoenix. Even with the question marks, the Suns will again be a force to be reckoned with in the West.
The Eastern Conference
1. The Detroit Pistons
The Eastern Conference runner-ups did not exactly have an ideal off-season. While they did lock up excellent swing man Tayshaun Prince to a long-term deal, the near�guaranteed resignation of center Big Ben Wallace never materialized.
Instead, the Pistons hope to move on with serviceable big man Nazr Mohammed in his place, while the rest of the championship core from two years ago remains relatively intact.
The absence of Wallace will leave a leadership and defensive void that must be filled by veterans Rasheed Wallace, Chauncey Billups, and Richard Hamilton. Wallace’s departure will also mean increased minutes for sixth�man Antonio McDyess, whose age and knee problems do not necessarily call for an increased workload as a route to success.
The Pistons will have to rely on continuing their trend of offensive improvement under head coach Flip Saunders who took over last year following Larry Brown’s bolt to New York.
The Pistons made the right move financially by not over-paying for Ben Wallace, who will most likely lose some of his dominant edge by the end of his four year deal with Chicago, while maintaining the financial flexibility to extend Chauncey Billups contract after this year if they can work out a deal with him. The Pistons need to start strong out of the gate to make sure the fans, who were devastated by Big Ben’s surprising change of address, are behind a team that uses the Palace’s home court advantage to suffocate opponents at home.
2. The Cleveland Cavaliers
We were all “witness” to how LeBron James and his “supporting cast” nearly knocked off the Pistons last year in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Pistons had the Cavs beat at every position, besides whichever position LBJ happened to be playing at that particular moment.
James’ ability to play the one through three spots as well if not better than anyone in the league is only a scratch on the surface of his ability. The real tell tale sign is the success the Cavs enjoyed in last year’s playoffs, with James’ aforementioned supporting cast less than stellar all around. With King James coming off the NBA season and playoffs as second in minutes played per game, and a ton of minutes in the World Basketball Championships this summer with Team USA, coach Mike Brown will have to find time to rest his superstar.
A healthy Larry Hughes (who lost a large chunk of the season to injury last year) and a productive Zydrunas Ilgauskas will be key elements to easing LeBron’s workload, and in turn freeing him up to explode offensively when need be.
Overall, the X-Factor for Cleveland may prove to be the talented but erratic Drew Gooden. Gooden has never lacked for talent, but he seems to lack what it takes to be a consistent game-changing factor on a consistent basis. Along with role players Damon Jones, Eric Snow, and Donyell Marshall, Gooden will have to step up at key moments against defenses that will constantly key on LeBron. With LeBron on the court wearing a Cleveland jersey for at least the next four years (after signing a three year contract extension this summer), the Cavs will continue to take steps towards a championship during the King James Era.
3. The New Jersey Nets
The Nets are included in this category for one primary reason—they play in the Atlantic Division. That means, barring any extreme injury or other happening, they should take the division and the number three seed (at worst) that will come with it.
This will allow them to play a weaker opponent than their final record may warrant in the first round, something that has been a trend in recent years for the Atlantic Division Champion.
There is no doubt that the Nets big trio of Vince Carter, Jason Kidd, and Richard Jefferson is formidable and talented. The fact that Vince will be a free agent this summer will likely work in favor of the Nets for this season at least, since he is notorious for playing based on his mood. Want out of Toronto? Tank the season and stop trying. Want another big contract? Step up your game and play like a perennial all-star.
An aging Kidd will benefit from the great pickup of Marcus Williams in this years draft by the Nets.
Williams, a product of UConn, is regarded by many as the best pure point guard to come out of this year’s draft. With Carter and Jefferson able to dominate most other swing men in the league, and Kidd and Williams at the point, much of the focus will be on the Nets’ big men.
Nenad Kristic has shown flashes of dominance and game changing ability, and his continued development will be key to the Nets returning to their 2002-03 form in which they won back-to-back Eastern Conference titles. New Jersey’s other UConn draft pick, Josh Boone will team up with Jason Collins in what should be an efficient rebounding tandem. If the Nets are able to rebound effectively, they will be able to get out on the break and score some serious points.
These three teams from each Conference look to be at the front of the pack to start the season. While any of the teams may challenge Miami from either within the Eastern Conference or in the NBA Finals, there are several teams on the verge of making some noise this season. A healthy Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady duo will make for a promising season down in Houston. The continued development of the Hornets, with Chris Paul leading the way and veteran newcomers Tyson Chandler, Peja Stojakovic, and Bobby Jackson should make the NBA’s surprise team from a year ago a near playoff lock this year.
Finally, the Bulls gave Miami all they could handle in their first round match up during last year’s playoffs, and the addition of Ben Wallace should sure up their interior defense and allow them to exploit the Heat on the perimeter even more in their match-ups this season. Outside of Dwayne Wade, the Heat just could not match up with Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, Chris Duhon, and Andres Noicini last season.
While Miami deserves to be the favorite to repeat as Eastern Conference Champions this season, whoever comes out of the West will be a very talented, tough, and proven team. The East may have the future of the NBA in LeBron James and Dwayne Wade, but with names like Kobe Bryant of the Lakers, Carmelo Anthony (who dominated at the World Championships this summer), and Kevin Garnett on the non-elite teams, the West is far deeper in overall talent; the area code of the NBA championship may change this season.