Bears-Colts Meet in Miami
February 2, 2007
At 6:25 p.m. next Sunday, the fourth of February, millions of Americans will assemble in their homes in celebration of the Super Bowl, the biggest sporting event in the country.
Millions of favorite dishes will be cooked and eaten, billions of beers will be drunk, and coincidentally, the Indianapolis Colts will face off with the Chicago Bears in Miami, Florida to determine the winner of the Vince Lombardi Trophy, the NFL champion.
The Indianapolis Colts, coached by Tony Dungy, enter the game having recently defeated their perennial rival, the New England Patriots. After years of being haunted by the Patriots’ playoff excellence, the Colts were finally able to win a big game.
Quarterback Peyton Manning, much maligned for previous playoff performances, played the best game of his career, outdoing his chief rival at the position, Tom Brady.
The Indianapolis defense responded to criticisms that their weakness to stop the run would be the team’s undoing by peaking at just the right time in the playoffs. After struggling down the stretch towards the end of the regular season, the Colts picked up the pace once the playoffs began, and played their best game of their season in the AFC Championship game.
The Bears, coached by Lovie Smith, dominated the New Orleans Saints in Chicago last week to earn a spot in the big game.
While they were viewed as one of the least dependable teams in the playoffs due to the sporadic performances of their fourth-year quarterback, Rex Grossman, the Bears justified their top seed in the NFC with two solid victories.
The defense has overcome major injuries by rushing the passer well and forcing turnovers.
Grossman has not performed outstandingly, but has played more steadily than he did during the regular season.
The Bears’ special teams are also some of the best in the league: kicker Robbie Gould had a stellar year, and return man Devin Hester broke the league record for touchdown returns in a season.
One of the key match-ups in the game will be the Colts’ coverage unit against the aforementioned Hester. Indianapolis does not cover punts and kickoffs particularly well, and last week the Patriots had a long kickoff return against them that nearly turned the tide of the game. Against Indianapolis’ mediocre special teams unit, Hester could make a few game-altering plays.
Not many returners in the history of the game have possessed Hester’s combination of speed, balance, and excellent field vision. Even if Chicago’s offense sputters, Hester’s returns could give them a short field to work with on numerous occasions. A special teams player has been MVP of the Super Bowl only once before, but a player of Hester’s caliber can change the course of any game.
Of course, the Colts have their own special teams weapon in Adam Vinatieri. He’ll be up for his fourth Super Bowl ring, two of which came on his game-winning kicks (XXXVI and XXXVIII). If the game comes down to the wire, there is no one you would rather have in a clutch field goal situation.
The biggest match-up in any given Bears game is often QB Rex Grossman versus himself. Grossman has demonstrated a lack of consistency that had some pundits predicting the Bears to lose their first playoff game. Grossman responded with one solid game against the Seahawks and a poor one against the Saints.
The Bears have to be optimistic about Grossman’s play against the Saints, however, because he did not turn the ball over. Chicago’s game plan does not ask Grossman to make incredible plays, only to avoid risky throws and hold onto the football.
A few things could cause the bad Grossman to come out in the Super Bowl. One potential problem is Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney, who has rebounded from a substandard regular season to reenergize the Indianapolis pass rush during the playoffs. If Grossman has a comfortable pocket in which to stand and survey the field, he will at least have a decent day. If Freeney and his cohorts can force Grossman to move his feet and not permit him a cozy downfield view, it will be a long day for the Chicago quarterback.
Also worrisome to Grossman would be an early Indianapolis lead. Against the Saints, Grossman played nearly the whole game ahead, and was not pressured into having to make difficult plays. Since his team was leading the game, there was no need to take risks. In the Colts’ case, the best defense is a good offense.
Speaking of the Colts’ offense, one of the big questions heading into the game is whether they can duplicate their performance in the AFC championship game, when Peyton Manning and company laid a beating on one of the better defenses in football.
Manning in particular had a spectacular game, as he consistently made great throws despite a good New England pass rush. Is there any way that Chicago can disrupt Manning’s timing?
Chicago has an excellent pass rush, and if they can get to Manning a split second faster than the Patriots did, then those completions could turn into throwaways and sacks. The Bears certainly have the talent in their defensive line and linebackers to pressure Manning. The Indianapolis offensive line needs to have another good performance to give Manning time to make plays.
Also crucial is the ability of Manning’s receivers to get open. Against the Patriots, Manning leaned heavily on his tight ends, especially Dallas Clark, who caught six balls for 137 yards.
The Bears have younger, faster linebackers than New England, so Clark probably will not find the same openings as he did in the conference championship game.
Pro Bowl wide receivers Marvin Harrison—one of the best receivers to ever play the game—and Reggie Wayne should see an increased workload this week.
Chicago has solid defensive backs, but Manning and his receivers can be unstoppable at times, and can dominate a game when they find a rhythm. Manning is excellent at finding the soft spots in a defense, and Chicago will be hard pressed to stop him, especially if they have trouble pressuring him.
The Bears were able to slow the multifaceted New Orleans offense in Chicago last week, but much of that had to do with the slippery playing surface. In Miami, the turf will not be a problem for Manning’s air attack.
The Indianapolis Colts also run the ball very effectively. Running back Joseph Addai is the first rookie to rush for 1,000 yards as a non-starter, and has continued to play well in the postseason.
Chicago will be without star defensive tackle Tommie Harris, and the Bears “D” is not as stout against the run as it was earlier in the year. If Addai and starter Dominic Rhodes can run well against the Bears, it will take some pressure off of Manning, and set up big plays via play-action passes.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Colts have performed better than expected in the playoffs.
Their rushing defense was by far the worst in the league this year, but has not been as big a liability as expected in the post-season. Against the Patriots, they got better as the game went on. Their linebackers and secondary have also performed well as pass defenders in the playoffs. They shut down veteran quarterbacks Trent Green and Steve McNair and did not allow Tom Brady to defeat them. The defense as a whole is peaking at the right time.
The Bears will probably try to dominate the Colts smallish defensive line with their power running game, featuring Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson.
The Bears offensive line is one of the better ones in football, and it will take a very solid effort by Indianapolis’ linemen and linebackers to force the Bears to pass the ball. If the Bears cannot run the ball well, it is doubtful that Grossman will be able to pass effectively.
The Colts’ pass defense should have an advantage over Grossman, but if Indianapolis’ defensive backs need to worry more about the run, it could result in big plays by Grossman.
The prediction here is that the Bears defense will not be able deal with Manning and the Colts offense for all 60 minutes of the game.
Eventually, Manning and offensive coordinator Tom Moore will find a way to beat Chicago’s “D.” If it happens early on, and Chicago has to abandon its running game for stretches, Indianapolis will win.
I doubt that either Rex Grossman or Indianapolis’ run defense will collapse and play like they did during the regular season. The Colts’ “D” will not give up the big passes that Grossman makes when things are going well, but also will not take the ball away from Chicago more than once or twice.
The real wild card in this game is Devin Hester, and while I think he should probably make a play or two, I don’t think that he will score.
When it’s all said and done, I envision Peyton Manning standing on the podium hoisting up the Vince Lombardi trophy over his head after their 31-17 victory over the Bears, finally silencing the critics who dubbed him this decade’s Dan Marino.